Kamala Harris Takes 8-Point Lead Over Trump for Likability in Swing States

Vice President Kamala Harris took an 8-point lead over Donald Trump in terms of likability in key battleground states, according to a poll released Thursday.
A Times/YouGov survey in seven swing states, including Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania, showed Harris was winning on likability but fell behind her rival when it came to sincerity.
“Even compared to March, a better time for the Biden campaign, Harris is running ahead or even in each state,” Carl Bialik, vice president of data science and U.S. politics editor at YouGov, said.
“She is running ahead of, or even with, Biden’s 2020 performance in five of the seven states,” Bialik said. “In 2020, Biden won six of them and the election.”
“If the leads in these states hold up and the remaining states vote the same way they did in 2020, then Kamala Harris would win the electoral college vote by 276 to 262,” he added.
Bialik’s prediction came after historian Allan Lichtman, known for accurately predicting the outcomes of presidential races over the past 40 years, said Harris would win in November.
The latest poll of 6,500 voters was carried out between August 23 and September 3.
In the critical states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 43 percent of voters said they liked Harris a lot or somewhat, compared to 35 percent for Trump.
At the other end of the spectrum, 41 percent disliked Harris a lot or somewhat, compared with 53 percent for Trump.
The roles were reversed when it came to voters believing what the candidates had to say. Fifty-three percent said they felt Harris only said what she felt voters wanted to hear, compared with 42 percent saying the same for Trump.
Overall, the poll showed Harris leading in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, while Trump led in the other three.
If these numbers played out on November 5, they would give the Democrat a narrow lead with the Electoral College and push her toward victory.
The favorability of both candidates’ running mates was also polled, with Harris’ VP pick, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, getting a 41 percent very or somewhat favorable view from voters. By comparison, Trump’s running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, received a 36 percent favorability rating.
Voters also said their number one issue was inflation and prices, at 22 percent, but immigration came in second with 13 percent.
Regarding the economy, 42 percent of voters in these key states said they had a poor view of it, while 43 percent stated they felt worse off financially than a year ago.
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